Selenian Boondocks has an interesting post on whether it's reasonable (or not) to assume that current suborbital private spacecraft efforts will scale up to orbital. Conventional wisdom says no (25-81 times the energy would be needed); Jonathan Goff says yes, because all the hard work is at the bottom of the atmosphere and that only 1.5-4x is needed (via Simberg).

I just saw my first ever Iridium Flare from my office window at 5:51:43, exactly on schedule. Notes:

• it was a few degrees clockwise of where I was expecting it (N rather than NNW). Must be the geographical vs. magnetic north pole issue.
• I used this tool to give me the exact time
• It was bright, very bright: magnitude -6; the best you get is -8
• I didn't wake up Trinity-Anne because she's feeling a little ill (aren't we all these days?) but next time for sure. We were looking at Orion, the Plaides and the heads of Gemini last night at midnight when she got up for a few minutes.

Chair Force Engineer (via Simberg, who says the current plans the results of the elected self-styled space engineers in Congress):

NASA's "shuttle derived" fraud is slowly revealing itself for what it is: an expensive make-work program that isn't really shuttle derived at all. It's a mostly-new SRB, mostly-new J-2 engine, new launch pads and support structures, and three all-new rocket stages: the 5m upper stage for Ares I and both liquid-fueled stages of Ares V.

Now there are a maverick group of NASA engineers who are advocating something I pushed for a few months ago; something that maximizes commonality with the shuttle program. The plan is being referred to as "Direct Launcher." The 8.38 meter tank, SRB's, pads and service towers are all being reused from the shuttle program under the "direct launcher" proposal. And because the crew and cargo launchers are so similar to each other, the program's operational cost is expected to be under $2 bil per year. The current baseline of Ares I and V will be similar to the shuttle program's current $3 bil per year.

Here's some sample missions and configurations, if you like looking at pretty but theoretical pictures. I believe that the real future of space has to lie in production lines rolling off vehicles, whether it's private or government operations, but most likely both. That's the way expensive equipment becomes affordable.